The latest population estimates reveal that Warwickshire is home to an estimated 554,002 people, this is an increase of 2,408 people from the previous year. The rate of growth in Warwickshire is below that experienced nationally (0.80%), and at county level the growth rate has decreased from 0.52% for 2013 to 2014, to 0.44% for 2014 to 2015. When looking at population change across the five districts and boroughs, we can see there is some variation.
In line with previous trends, Rugby once again experienced the highest rate of population growth in the county, a rate higher than that seen nationally. Between 2014 and 2015 the borough gained an additional 943 people, meaning that population growth in Rugby accounted for 39.2% of Warwickshire’s population growth as a whole. Whilst population growth in Rugby remains the highest in the county, the borough grew at a smaller rate (0.92%) than it had done the previous year (1.11%).
According to the mid-2014 population estimates, Warwick District experienced the second highest rate of growth, increasing by 0.67% between 2013 and 2014, however the latest figures show North Warwickshire experienced the second highest rate of growth between 2014 and 2015, increasing by 0.51% compared to 0.38% in Warwick. Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough once again experienced the lowest rate of population growth at county level (0.11%).
Population change results from a combination of births, deaths and migration (both internal and international) flows. As with the previous year, migration was the driving factor for population change between 2014/15. Of the 2,408 residents gained between 2014/15, 427 (17.7%) residents were gained through natural change (births minus deaths), 966 (40.1%) were gained through internal migration, a further 942 (39.2%) were gained through international migration and 73 (3.0%) were gained due to other adjustments. There was again some variation around the county, when looking at drivers of population change.
- In North Warwickshire, deaths exceeded births, meaning natural change alone would have resulted in a decrease in the size of the population. However, net migration resulted in an additional 413 residents.
- Conversely, in Nuneaton & Bedworth net migration was down, with more people leaving the borough than coming to it. Natural change was therefore the driving factor for population growth in Nuneaton & Bedworth Borough.
- Population change in Rugby was largely due to net migration; however natural change also played a significant role.
- Stratford-on-Avon also saw deaths exceed births, resulting in a loss of 346 residents. However, 825 residents were gained through migration. As Stratford-on-Avon has a large older adult population, it is not surprising that deaths would exceed births.
- International migration was once again the driving factor for population growth in Warwick, closely followed by natural change.
The full 2015 mid-year population data set is available here